Hottest Year In 120,000 Years?

It was a mild summer in western Minnesota. No 100-degree days for many communities; fewer than average 90-degree days. But we are a tiny fraction of the United States and an even smaller pocket of the global temperature scene.
“Summer 2024 sweltered to Earth’s hottest on record, making it even more likely that this year will end up as the warmest humanity has measured,” European climate service Copernicus reported last week.
“And if this sounds familiar, that’s because the records the globe shattered were set just last year as human-caused climate change, with a temporary boost from an El Nino, keeps dialing up temperatures and extreme weather,” Associated Press Science Writer Seth Borenstein reported.
For meteorologists, summer starts June 1 and ends Aug. 31. This year global temperatures averaged 62.24 degrees—a fraction higher than last year’s record. El Nino is gone but the heat isn’t.
Copernicus’ records go back to 1940, but American, British, and Japanese weather records go back to the middle 1800s. A study of these records shows that the last 10 years on Earth have been the hottest. However, historical temperature data for a far longer period can be found in the Earth’s environmental record.
Through the study of coral reefs, ancient sediments in lakes and oceans, clues buried in glaciers, and tree rings paleoclimatologists can put together a climate story of the past. Based on that story, they say this year could be the warmest year in 120,000 years.
Based on what has been happening in the U.S. Southwest this summer maybe we will see the version of the Minnesota snowbird reversed with Arizonans looking to spend the summer somewhere cooler. Phoenix saw 56 days with temperatures of 110 degrees or higher setting a record. The previous record was 55 in 2023.
It has seen 106 consecutive days with 100-degree or higher temperatures and will likely surpass 110 by the end of the week. The previous record was 76 days in 1993.
Because Minnesota hasn’t experienced the extreme heat other areas of the country and world have this year doesn’t mean we aren’t feeling the impacts of a hotter Earth. Knowing the climate is warming, the state has been preparing for the threats and challenges that are already being seen and which are likely to worsen.
“Observations show we are already experiencing the impacts of climate change across the state and we expect more changes in the coming years,” the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership says.
“In fact, Minnesota’s average annual temperature has increased nearly 3 degrees since the late 1800s. Climate science research suggests that the state will continue to get warmer and wetter, with more extreme events driving changes across the state.
Winters are warming dramatically, it says. Spring is arriving by up to two weeks earlier than it did in the early 1900s.
Not all the signs of a warming climate are coming from scientific data and weather observations. Nature also says it’s getting warmer. Minnesota’s maple syrup harvest has moved into late January or early February from its historic gathering time in March. Lakes are freezing over later and opening up earlier.
Between November and April, more precipitation is falling as rain rather than snow. However, due to more atmospheric moisture, we’ve also seen heavier snowfalls at times. “Across the Midwest, winter and spring precipitation are projected to increase up to 30% by the end of the century,” according to the University of Minnesota.
Late last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a new version of its Plant Hardiness Zone Map showing what plants will grow where in the U.S. After decades in Zone 4, Swift, Stevens, and Pope counties, and the southern half of Grant County, are now in Zone 5.
In 2012, the USDA’s plant hardiness zones moved more than 200 miles north. Now they’ve moved even farther north.
The average yearly maximum rain events have become more extreme and more common.
State climatologists say a “mega-rain” occurs when at least six inches of rain falls over an area of at least 1,000 square miles. These huge rain events cause extensive flooding and infrastructure damage.
According to Minnesota’s State Climatology Office, Minnesota has had 21 mega-rain events between 1973 and 2024, with 16 of them happening since 2000.
This data shows that mega-rains have been three times as frequent in the last 24 years as in the 37 years between 1973 and 1999.
Communities and counties across the state are seeing the impacts of more severe weather. In June, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency awarded $500,000 in grants to help eight communities in Greater Minnesota better understand how to prepare their infrastructure for extreme weather caused by climate change.
The grants will help the cities improve and upgrade stormwater and drainage systems to prevent flooding from more frequent heavy rainfalls.
In recent years, the days between the last frost of the spring and the first frost of the fall have increased.
A downside to our warming winters is that they allow more insects to move northward, carrying diseases that can infect humans, animals, and crops.
Changing precipitation and temperature extremes will challenge our water resources, potentially causing friction between farming interests, the state as it manages water use, and communities that draw water from the same wells as farm irrigators. Rural residents, both those involved in agriculture and those simply enjoying a rural life, will see their home wells affected by aquifer drawdowns.
Economic development projects needing a large amount of water could be canceled if water resources become scarce.
These pressures on agriculture, home life, and industry aren’t projections. They are already happening but will get increasingly tougher to manage in the coming years.